Foley says Anthropic’s amended S-1 spotlights a huge compute bill

AI summary

John Foley says Anthropic’s amended S-1 makes clear that its compute bill over the next few years is very large, about $900 billion, and could grow. He says revenue is also rising quickly, but growth slowed and precise forecasts are unreliable. Foley says Anthropic has reportedly guided to about $200 billion in 2028 revenue.

If that happens, he says, even about $100 billion a year in compute spending could be feasible, though he questions whether the figures will hold. Some sharper cost-trajectory figures came from the host’s questions, not clearly from Foley: quarterly compute costs of about $3.4 billion, $5.6 billion and $9.9 billion; compute-cost growth near 80% versus revenue growth around 47–48%; and a possible scenario of costs exceeding revenue. On credit ratings, Foley says lacking an investment-grade rating would make fundraising more expensive and should factor into share valuation, while not by itself meaning Anthropic will fail.