Seyed M. Marandi: Iran Threatens to Kill Netanyahu & Will Increase Pressure on the U.S.

Overview

Overview Muhammad Marandi, a professor at Tran University and former adviser to Iran's nuclear negotiation team, discusses the complex geopolitical and economic tensions between Iran, the United States, and regional actors. He critically assesses the Trump administration's economic pressures on Iran, military preparedness, potential responses, and broader regional dynamics involving Israel, Turkey, and Gulf states. His central argument is that while the U.S.

pursues stringent economic and military pressure on Iran, Tehran is prepared for war yet cautious to avoid triggering a global crisis, focusing instead on a "resistance economy" and leveraging strategic alliances. Main argument Marandi argues that U.S. claims about controlling the Strait of Hormuz and economically squeezing Iran are overstated; Iran continues to allow significant oil exports via complex mechanisms involving regional partners like Iraq, China, and even Gulf states with poor political relations but economic ties.

Despite rising shortages and economic stress in Iran, the country seeks to avoid a full-blown crisis that would jeopardize regional stability, including for its own allies. Iran is actively building military strength, investing heavily in missile and drone technology, underground bases, and research capabilities, preparing for possible conflict. Marandi suggests any escalation toward war will largely depend on U.S.

actions under Trump’s leadership, with Iran ready to retaliate militarily if economic strangulation intensifies. In the wider region, Marandi highlights the fractured alliances and shifting power dynamics, especially between Israel, Turkey, and Iran. He underscores that Iran’s twin strategy involves expelling U.S.

influence through weakening its foothold in Iraq and the Persian Gulf while simultaneously preparing for military confrontation if necessary. The future trajectory hinges on unpredictable leadership decisions and elections, particularly in the U.S. and Israel.

Evidence and examples Marandi points to several key evidential pillars: Oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz: Iran facilitates oil exports using smaller ships to circumvent direct blockade effects, preserving economic channels with friendly or economically linked countries such as Iraq and China.

Summary 2

Military enhancement: Iran's expanded underground bases and missile R&D produce increasingly precise and resilient weapons. Defense experts cite Iran as being stronger militarily today than ever before. Yemen missile strike: On August 24, Yemen launched missiles hitting a Saudi tanker far from Yemen’s coast, demonstrating regional allied capability that surpasses what Iran might directly show, implying Iran’s potential military reach.

U.S. economic vulnerabilities: The battered U.S. bond market, declining Gulf states' petrodollar income, and naval supply chain struggles in the Persian Gulf display American economic and logistical weakness.

Geopolitical complications: The fragile and inconsistent relationships between Turkey and Israel, and Turkey’s unpredictable role in regional conflicts, underscore the complex web of shifting alliances. U.S. foothold in Iraq: Marandi reports that the U.S.

military and intelligence presence in Iraq is weakening, with bases attacked and forces being forced out, weakening U.S. influence over Syria and the broader region. Distinctive insights One notable insight is the distinction Marandi draws between Iran's military capability and political intent.

He emphasizes that the absence of Iranian attacks on American naval vessels, despite possessing the capability, likely reflects strategic restraint rather than weakness. This contradicts prevalent narratives that see Iran as aggressively provocative at every opportunity. He also highlights Iran’s economic cooperation with certain Gulf states despite poor political relations, which complicates simplistic narratives of Iran as regionally isolated.

Finally, Marandi places substantial weight on the role of U.S.

Summary 3

domestic politics, especially the upcoming elections and Trump’s erratic decision-making, as critical drivers of future conflict escalation or de-escalation. Predictions and conditions Marandi predicts an increasingly tense environment over the next two months, closely aligning with the U.S. midterm elections and Israeli political developments.

He foresees Iran incrementally increasing pressure on U.S. interests, particularly in the Persian Gulf and possibly the Red Sea. However, he stresses uncertainty: the likelihood of full-scale war depends strongly on the policies and actions of Trump and Netanyahu.

Both leaders, driven by political desperation, have incentives that could push the region into conflict. Conversely, both may moderate actions to avoid catastrophic outcomes. Iran’s military buildup and strategic patience suggest that it will retaliate if economic strangulation continues but prefers gradual escalation and signaling to avoid full war except as a last resort.

Practical implications The interview suggests several practical implications: Economic sanctions and blockades are having a profound but incomplete effect, with Iran finding workaround mechanisms and trade partners to sustain critical exports. Military confrontations remain a credible threat given Iran’s advancements and strategic preparations. Regional alliances are fluid and sometimes contradictory; countries like Turkey may simultaneously cooperate economically with Israel and politically maneuver independently, complicating peace prospects.

U.S. geopolitical influence in the Middle East is eroding, with weak footholds in Iraq and logistical challenges affecting military power projection. U.S.

internal political volatility significantly influences foreign policy unpredictability, underscoring the importance for analysts and policymakers to monitor domestic U.S.

Summary 4

developments. Caveats and open questions Marandi’s analysis acknowledges uncertainties surrounding leadership decisions, especially Trump’s unpredictability and Netanyahu’s political instability. The exact capabilities and willingness of Iran’s allies to intensify conflict are not fully certain.

There is limited clarity on how effectively Iran can sustain a “resistance economy” amid mounting shortages and sanctions, nor on the extent that economic pressure will translate into domestic unrest or political change within Iran. The complexities of Turkey’s shifting alliances and internal politics are acknowledged but without definitive conclusions on future behavior. The region’s multiple conflicts, including that in Yemen, add layers of unpredictable escalation risk.

Key takeaways Muhammad Marandi presents a nuanced view that counters some U.S. narratives of overwhelming leverage over Iran. Iran remains economically resilient in many ways, militarily prepared, and politically strategic in calibrating its responses to avoid immediate all-out war.

The future of the conflict depends heavily on U.S. and Israeli political dynamics, with significant risks tied to Trump’s erratic governance and Netanyahu’s electoral desperation. Regional instability is exacerbated by unpredictable actors like Turkey, but Iran’s goal of expelling U.S.

influence from the region is gradually advancing, even as direct confrontation remains a last resort. Ultimately, the erosion of U.S. dominance and the rise of Iran’s capabilities mark a pivotal shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics, with the next months critical in determining whether tensions escalate or a fragile status quo endures.